Axiom

NDinomics Intelligence Engine

What will your portfolio do in these conditions? Not the average of the last 30 years — in today’s rates, today’s volatility, today’s regime. Axiom measures dozens of economic conditions, finds the most similar historical windows, and shows you the full range of what happened. The result is a probability distribution, not a guess.

Hundreds of Assets Tracked

Stocks, bonds, gold, REITs, international, commodities, leveraged ETFs. Each gets its own condition-aware forecast with probability bands.

Dozens of Market Conditions

Interest rates, VIX, credit spreads, inflation, employment, dollar strength, yield curve, Fed liquidity — the vital signs that drive different assets differently.

20 Years of History

Condition windows from 2007 to today — covering the financial crisis, COVID crash, rate hikes, and every recovery. The model has seen it.

What Drives Each Asset

AAPL is driven by volatility and tax policy. XLE by commodities and liquidity. NVDA is mostly company-specific. The model tells you which conditions matter for each name.

Regime-Aware

The economy is always in one of 9 states (growth × monetary policy). A 60-month expansion is more fragile than a 6-month one — duration matters.

Always a Distribution

No single-point predictions. Every forecast shows the most likely return, downside risk, upside potential, probability of gain, and distribution shape.

Everything below is live. Click any ticker for its full analysis. Predictions are committed to an immutable ledger — we can’t backdate them.

Axiom

Overview
Assets
Regime
Vectors
Validation
225
Signatures
20yr × monthly
27,400
Bootstrap Predictions
30 tickers × 12m
66%
Directional Accuracy
Target: ≥60%
67%
1σ Hit Rate
Target: 60–76%
90%
2σ Hit Rate
Target: 90–98%
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Current Regime
1.007
CI Scale Factor
CIs well calibrated
--/41
Active Conditions
FRED + yfinance
219
Signature Dims
205 condition + 14 regime

Current Conditions

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Leading indicators   Grayed = not yet available

Quick Predict


Enter any ticker — always a distribution, never a single point.

Condition-Aware Prediction

Full probability distribution with regime context, neighbors, leverage decay, income decomposition.



Hedge Discovery



Impact Propagation



Tracked Assets loading

V2 distribution preview for each ticker.

Loading predictions (instant if cached today, ~30s on first load of the day)...

Earnings Calendar

Click Load to show upcoming earnings (carried from V1 pipeline).

Options DB

Click Load for options DB summary (carried from V1 pipeline). Full Options DB →

Pundits

Pundit track records — independent in integrated_score. Full Pundits Page →

US Economy Regime loading ?

—
Growth Axis ?
—
Monetary Axis ?
—
Confidence ?

9-Cell Regime Map ?

Monetary Policy →
Growth ↓
Accommodative ?
Neutral
Restrictive ?
Expansion
0
0
0
Stagnation
0
0
0
Contraction
0
0
0

Numbers = historical window count per cell (228 total since 2007). "YOU ARE HERE" = current regime. A cell with 0 means this exact combination has no historical precedent — the model uses the nearest available cells.

Semi-Markov Transition Model

Duration-Conditioned Transitions
9×5×9 matrix — P(next regime | current regime, months in current). Duration distributions per regime. MC path generation.

Regime History Features

—
Months in Current
—
Normalized Duration
>1.0 = overstaying
—
Previous Regime
—
Transitions (24mo)

Covariance Diagnostics

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Correlation Spread
<0.2 calm, >0.6 crisis
—
Real Forces (MP)
Marchenko-Pastur above noise
—
Shrinkage Applied
Ledoit-Wolf (N>k)
—
Cholesky OK
Positive definite

Correlation Heatmap

Regime-Conditional
N×N correlation matrix from current regime neighbors — colored by ρ. Shows what’s correlated NOW.

Marchenko-Pastur Diagnostic

Eigenvalue Distribution
Eigenvalues of Σ vs MP noise band. Above band = real forces. Inside = noise.

Consistency Groups

Clusters of ρ>0.7 assets. Click "Load Groups" to compute from current covariance.

Portfolio Construction

Intent-Aligned
Growth / Conservative / Bunker / Preservation optimization over scenario-by-scenario returns. Barbell counter-vectors identified.

Pre-Release Validation loading

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Readiness Gates

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Gate 1: Pre-release
Skipped
Gate 2: Shadow
—
Gate 3: Stress Library
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Gate 4: Edge Cases
—
Gate 5: First Live

Fundamental Consistency

7 Textbook Tests
Rate hikes → TLT drops, VIX spike → equities drop, Gold = crisis hedge, TQQQ ≈ 3× QQQ — auto-verified